Last week was a holiday and while we have 4th of July each year, this year it was on a Thursday, which means we write off two of the biggest days of the week for new listings and closings, Thursday and Friday.  The last time 4th of July was on a Thursday was 2019 and there are some comparisons I’ll draw. So, given that we lost two important days last week, all stats are going to be markedly skewed and not statistically significant.  That said, I’ll share a few things and we’ll wait until Tuesday of next week to see how the second half of the year is really starting off.

Under Contracts and Showings

While Thursday and Friday were essentially both holidays, the number of properties under contract last week was surprisingly high relative to the last couple years.  852 properties went under contract last week compared to 968 and 896 in 2022 and 2023 respectively.
Slower, yes.  But again, more normal.  2021 and early 2022 were anomalies.  We are right in the sweet spot of market volume and have no where to go but up. Showing activity remained elevated compared to the last two years.  Last week experienced 20,300 showings compared to 13,800 in the same holiday week over the previous two years.  This once again reinforces the idea that buyers are out there, they are just taking their time, knowing they are in the driver’s seat.
Interesting to note that in 2019, we actually had fewer showings in the same 4th of July week than this year…with the same Thursday and Friday “off”. Showings per listing was down again with the average property experiencing only 2.07 showings last week.
And showings per contract was off the charts (well, actually on the chart, but high) last week at 25.97 showings to get a contract.
This is incredibly helpful information to share with your sellers.  They will understand they are not alone, it is the market and not you.

Negative Price Curve

The median home price is definitely on the decline, as has been the narrative for the last 6 weeks.  Help your sellers understand that the price will continue to decline through the end of the year and that if they want to sell now, they need to get ahead of it.  That means, dropping the price.
Now, a very reasonable question would be: is there a negative price curve because smaller homes sell in the second half of the year?  If we look at the last two years, the answer is definitively, no.  In fact, there are slightly more larger homes selling in the second half of the year which is absolute proof that prices simply decline in the second half of each year.
That is always the case because inventory climbs through September or October of each year, and demand begins to cool at the same time.  We have more homes and fewer buyers so prices decline.

This IS NOT catastrophic news for real estate.  This happens every year.

Inventory

Inventory dipped to 9,324 homes for sale last week with only 674 properties coming to market in our holiday week, 852 going under contract, plus 170 withdrawn and 270 expired.
We’ll see, but I expect a jump of inventory next week.