The Cold Hard Facts.  Use this with your buyers and sellers, as there is important data and most importantly action to take here.  The sold price per square foot is now below 2022, and larger homes are selling.  If your sellers need to sell, now is the time to start getting aggressive with price.

If your buyers want to buy, I would prime your database for some likely opportunities.  Make the calls, send the emails, get them thinking and find out who is already thinking.  The forecast continues to be for interest rates to decline.  This late fall or early winter may be the best buying window we’ve seen in a few years as inventory is at it height of the year, rates may be down a bit, prices will likely be at a low and many other buyers will be sitting on the sidelines waiting for election results.

If rates head where the market is expecting them, spring 2025 will actually be busier and more competitive for buyers than 2024.

Market Right Now

Days on Market continue their trend upward, price reductions jump, percentage of properties sold below asking increase.  Average sold price continues its downward trend toward the end of the year, inventory sees a modest increase.

Home showings continue their torrid pace, but the number of showings to get a contract remains elevated and showings per listing are record low, though similar to the last two years.

Contract volume remains consistent with the last two years, but sold properties are lower again, reinforcing the narrative that deals are hard.

Price

The average sold price dipped to $685,841 last week for all property types, dropping just below the 2023 average.

Reminder to not get too hung up on average sold price trends as we experience this decline the second half of each year.  However, it is a really important data point to share with sellers…prices are declining and if your seller needs to sell, they likely need to get in front of this seasonal negative price curve.

That should be reinforced by the idea that not only are prices below 2023 and falling, but price per square foot is below 2022, and likely falling.  The average price per square foot, which never reached the high of 2022, has dipped below both 2022 and 2023 and seems to be on a modest downward trend like the previous two years.

Average sold price per foot all property types and single family homes:

All Property Types:2020-$2542021-$3042022-$3272023-$3362024-$323 Single Family Residence:2020-$2462021-$2992022-$3172023-$3272024-$323

Days on Market, Sold Above/Below Asking and Price Reductions

The march upward continues for days on market, hitting just over 38 days on average from listing to contract last week, thought for many sellers the reality feels longer.  And, while the trend is similar, single family homes are averaging just over 37 days on market.

18% of properties are now selling for over the asking price with now almost 62% of properties selling below.  Most likely, weak agents are not telling sellers how to price their homes from the beginning and over priced homes are receiving offers well below asking.

Zooming out longer term, only 48.7% of properties were selling below asking price at the end of July last year compared to 62% this year.  This is the most elevated percentage of homes sold below asking since July of 2012.

This is reinforced by the number of price reductions the market is experiencing. As of last week 42% of properties have experienced a price reduction.

And this trend likely continues through year end until we see over 50% of active properties experience at least one price reduction.

Showings

Home showings continue their strong pace at 24,500 showings last week, matching the busiest year in real estate history of 2021.  This once again reinforces the narrative that people want to buy as interest rates decline, but remain cautious.

That caution is displayed in the once again historically high number of home showings it takes to get a contract, ending last week at just over 27 showings.  It likely takes a dip in interest rates to open up this log jam of buyer activity.

Inventory

And inventory experienced a modest increase last week ending with 10,244 homes available for sale, about 3,250 more than the same time last year.

The peak of annual inventory is traditionally September or October of each year and if that pattern continues, buyers should be looking at getting really aggressive with their offers come this fall.

With this being an election year expect the height of inventory to peak in either August or September of this year.