A Market that appears to be waiting for something…

Some conflicting signs in the market right now.  Contracts are strong, but rates are up.  Listings remain strong and showings are down.  Seller concessions are high, days on market are down and offers below asking are up.  What the?

Price

Last week, the average sold price hit an all time high at $776,319 for all property types and $871,353 for single family detached homes.  This remains conflicting data with historically slow showings and rising inventory…yet here we are.

Inventory

Inventory dipped last week to 6,749 homes on the market, with strong buyer activity driving contracts at a pace that actually drove days on market down.

While inventory dipped, expect it to continue to rise through mid summer before sliding through year end.

Days on Market

Days on market turned a corner a few weeks back and slid below 25 days for only the third time this year ending last week at 21.39.  Virtually identical to 2023 but markedly elevated from 2021 and 2022 which were both at approximately 8.5 days.

Concessions

As rates remain elevated, seller concession demand from buyers is at an all time seasonal high.  Most likely used for rate buy downs, seller concessions remain an important aspect of buyer negotiations.

Concessions hit $6,586 per contract last week.

Last week was a spike of concessions, where May 2024 continues to show a seasonal downward trend.  We’ll pay attention to interest rates, inventory, showings and seller concessions as lead indicators of how and when the market might shift.

Conclusion

It appears buyers and sellers continue to buck the trend of high interest rates, having emotionally adapted to simply getting on with life and buying and selling independent of payment shock.

This is a good sign for the market.  If interest rates do decline toward the end of the year, market activity likely spikes, setting 2025 up for a strong market.